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Knowledge Base/Getting started/Pipelines/Probability in Pipedrive

Stage probability
Deal probability
Total and weighted value
Weighted value formulas

Probability in Pipedrive

Jenny Takahara, March 27, 2024

Probability represents whether a deal will be WON by that deal’s expected close date. Pipedrive automatically calculates the deal’s value based on the provided probability, making your sales volume predictions easier.

Within Pipedrive, there are two forms of probability: stage probability and deal probability.

Stage probability

Note: By default, stage probability is set to 100% for each stage unless adjusted.

The stage probability is the likelihood of closing a deal based on the pipeline stage it’s in.

To adjust the probability for each stage, go to the pipeline view and click on the pencil icon next to the pipeline dropdown, or hover your cursor over a pipeline and click the pencil icon there.

Learn more about programming probability for your pipeline stages in this article.

Note: You need visibility of a pipeline to configure stage probability. Obsolete and discontinued currencies don’t have conversion rates and are not counted towards stage probabilities.

Deal probability

Note: The deal probability is always prioritized over the stage probability.

Deal probability represents the likelihood of a deal being marked as WON. You can choose a deal’s probability from the summary section of its detail view.

Learn how to enable and program deal probability for your pipeline stages in this article.

Total and weighted value

Note: In a weighted sales pipeline, opportunities with a higher likelihood of being WON are given more weight in sales forecasting.

The total value displayed in your stage is the total value of deals in that stage since the probability is set at 100% by default. However, if you set a different probability for that stage, your weighted total value takes the probability of the deals being won into account.

Here you can see the “Lead In” stage’s total value is $4,245.74, but as the probability in that stage is 50%, the weighted value for deals in that stage is $2,122.87.

At the top of your pipeline, you can see the total value of all of the deals in your pipeline, as well as the total weighted value (taking into consideration the probability set for each stage.)

If you’ve assigned any deal or stage probability, the weighted values of those deals will appear in the forecast view of your deals tab for revenue projection.

Note: A deal-specific probability will override a stage’s probability, but count toward that stage’s weighted value. The deal’s probability impacts the overall probability for that stage because it’s combined with the stage probability.

Weighted value formulas

Here’s a list of the formula used to calculate probabilities in Pipedrive.

When deal probability is set[Total value] x [deal probability/ 100] = Weighted value
When deal probability is not set, but stage probability is set:[Total value] x [stage probability/ 100] = Weighted value
When both deal and stage probabilities are set[Total value] x [deal probability/ 100] = Weighted value
When neither is setDeal value = Weighted value

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