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Knowledge Base/Getting Started/Pipelines/Probability in Pipedrive

Probability in Pipedrive

JT
Jenny Takahara, September 10, 2021

Probability is the value that represents your confidence in winning a deal by that deal's expected close date. Pipedrive automatically calculates the deal values based on the provided probability, making your sales volume predictions easier.

Within Pipedrive, there are two forms of probability: stage probability and deal probability.


Stage probability

The Stage probability allows you to set up the likelihood of closing a deal based on the pipeline stage it is currently in.

By default, stage probability is set to 100% for each stage unless otherwise adjusted. To adjust the probability for each stage, go to the Pipeline View and click on the "pencil" icon to bring up the Edit Pipeline page. Enter the probability value underneath the desired stage and click Save.

Learn how to adjust that value and program probability for your pipeline stages in this article.

Note: Only Admin users can configure stage probability.

Deal Probability

The deal probability allows you to set up the likelihood of closing each specific deal based on your knowledge of the deal itself. It is highly customizable, providing the most specific insight into each deal as it is programmed.

When added, the deal probability value will be prioritized over the stage probability for the pipeline stage that the deal currently lives in. In this way, you may wish to be vigilant in updating the probability of specific deals.

Learn how to enable and program deal probability for your pipeline stages in this article.


Total value and Weighted value

In a weighted sales pipeline, opportunities with higher likelihoods of being won are given more weight in sales forecasting. The total value displayed in your stage is the total value of deals in that stage. However, if you set a different probability for each stage of an individual deal, your weighted total value takes the probability of the deals being won into account.

For example, in the first stage of your pipeline, you may decide that one in ten deals will likely be won. By setting a probability of 10% for the first stage, 10% of the total value of deals in that stage will be taken as your weighted value for that stage. If you have four deals in the final stage of your pipeline with a 50% probability of the deals being won, 50% of the total value of these deals will be added to your total weighted value.

Here you can see the total value of your “Lead In” stage is €207,885.94, but as the probability of closing deals in that stage is 10%, the weighted value for deals in that stage is €20,788.59.

At the top of your pipeline, you can see the total value of all of the deals in your pipeline, as well as the total weighted value, taking into consideration the probability set for each stage.

If you have programmed deal or stage probability within your Pipedrive account, the weighted values of those deals will appear in the Forecast View of your Deals tab for revenue projection.

Note: If you have stage probability set and a deal-specific probability for specific deals in that stage, this will override the stage's probability and count toward that stage's weighted value. The deal's probability will impact the overall probability for that stage because it's combined with the stage probability.


Weighted value formulas

In case you want to know how the Weighted value is calculated, you can find here the formulas:

  • When Deal probability is set:

Deal probability * Total value / 100 = Weighted value

  • When Deal probability is not set, but Stage probability is set:

Stage probability * Total value / 100 = Weighted value

  • When neither are set:

Deal value = Weighted value

  • When both Deal and Stage probabilities are set:

Average of both probabilities * Total value / 100 = Weighted value

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